covid analysis

Six plus months had elapsed since the World Health Organization declared Covid -19 as a pandemic. The daily confirmed cases are still rising, but interestingly google trend shows a lose of interest in searches related to Covid-19 recently. Maybe the initial panic has come down to a greater extent. But how long can the pandemic last? How many months more we have to live with this?

And India’s case load has become the world’s second highest. Now the question is “how many months more?

When can India get back on its feet?

With the help of worldometer data, an analysis was done using the growth/decay factor of daily new cases. By growth/decay factor, I meant the increase/decrease factor and not the % change.

As per this simple mathematical analysis, progression of Covid-19 is slowing down with time since the very beginning itself. That is, it’s not actually a growth factor, but a decay factor. (Anyway the term growth factor itself will be used till the end of this article).

Growth factor was calculated across months for the daily new confirmed cases since April 2020 (considerable cases were being reported in India since April 2020). And further growth of growth factor was also computed.

One straight observation was the approximately constant ‘growth of growth factor’ over the months. That is, ‘the increase of increase’ was not much fluctuating. Instead it was showing a somewhat constant figure.

Then, using this ‘growth of growth factor’, data points are extrapolated for future months. So as per the data, new confirmed cases might be highest somewhere in Sept-October and then it starts slowly declining.

Figure 1 reflects a sample trend of daily new confirmed cases across months.

Figure 1: Trend of daily new cases

Correlation – daily active cases Vs new cases

Using ggplot package in R, a scatter plot is generated for daily total active cases against new confirmed cases.(This plot has used data from Covid-19 package in R).

Total active cases on a day appears to be approximately ten times (especially since July 2020) of the new confirmed cases on that day. And which implies recoveries are progressing at a constant rate as of now. If any dip/delay occurs in medicare services, the total active cases would drastically increase and which would lead to a severe catastrophe.

Figure 2:Scatter plot

Summary

Hopefully India can get back on its feet by say, third quarter of 2021 with strict adherence to social distancing measures and better medicare services. Social distancing is a must as a single infected person can become a bigger vulnerability later. Even though social distancing won’t end the disease, it can save more lives.

And last, but not least,

Recovery is not actually the end of this crisis. We are yet to face the lingering impacts of Covid-19, So let us make ourselves immunized to the best way possible.

Disclaimer

If the curve has been flattened, maybe we would have a better understanding and better predictions about the end of the pandemic. But the graphs are still rising or fluctuating.

More over we cannot expect a symmetric rise and fall of an epidemic. It could be a sharp rise and a little bit random decline after the peak. Then probably before touching the x axis, it may again surge back up and appear with another peak.

Hence I know it’s not wise to do such a forecasting especially when there are too many other factors at play like possibility of mutations happening to the virus gene, changes in testings etc.

Hence the data presented therein are purely based on my intuitions out of the mathematical analysis done and publicly available data at the time of publication.

And the information provided here are merely with an analysis purpose. I wouldn’t be responsible for any negative occurrences pertaining to the usage of this information. These reports are not peer-reviewed and therefore should not be treated as established information.

R language plays a major role in big data analysis. It is an open source programming language which mainly deals with statistical investigation of data.

R can be self- learnt easily with the help of some online courses or books.

After installing R and R studio, I would suggest to go with some books to kick start. Then read online, take some courses as in udemy and read more and more books. And keep practicing in the R studio. Even if you are without any prior programming experiences, this language is easily understandable and well structured.

Online courses are really worth as it gives you a one to one connection with the instructor while practicing. If you are serious of learning R, don’t be hesitated to take even paid courses.

Recommended books

R for Everyone: Advanced Analytics and Graphics 

Big Data in Practice : How 45 Successful Companies Used Big Data Analytics to Deliver Extraordinary Results

R’s creators: Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman (Stable beta version in 2000)

Again problems with apk installations via itunes..?
Apple had removed that app section in the latest version of iTunes 12.7 [released on September 19th 2017]. So there after this simple drag and drop solution as in the post Where in the world are the apps in iTunes library? helped to rectify the trouble.
But installing from the iTunes is not working for some times even with this drag and drop solution
I got a solution for this from Apple support site itself. Just go to this link and download the iTunes version Apple released
https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT208079
This itunes version can be used to download your app. And with this the previous App section is back in our ITunes folder.

While filing an issue, many a time the tester miss to add additional details specific to the bug. They must have done all the normal procedures, say like, steps, expected and actual results, environment details and all should have filed along with the issue.

But still sometimes the customer ends up in asking for further information, which is in fact a bit frustrating for them. During those cases both parties [customer and tester] need to invest additional effort to make the bug report adequate.

So just ensure a few of the points below if your bug is any of this type.

#If your bug is onDon't miss to attach
1Partial visibility of some buttons or something like thatDetails of screen resolution
2Some sentence correctionsYour suggestions on how to rewrite the sentence
3Some overlapping related issuesDetails in both landscape and portrait mode
4Page load issues Speed test result

A bug title is read more frequently than any other part of the bug report. So it has to be meaningful and easily understandable.

For example,

A bug : In the application while the user go to ‘xxx’ tab and search for an item with numeric characters, the app crashes

Poorly written bug title: App crashes

Here the bug title doesn’t summarize the scenario behind the crash

An average bug title: Searching in the ‘xxx’ tab leads to a crash

Here again the bug title is actually creating a false impression of the bug.

It could have better reworded like, “App crashes on searching in the xxx tab with numeric characters

Infact my suggestion would be to revisit and update the bug title finally, once the report is made fully.

After describing the issue, steps, expected and actual results, just look at the bug title. Definitely, you can do betterment on the same at the final stage.

So initially while starting to file the bug, just add a sentence or even some random keywords in the issue. Or even sometimes, just put whatever comes to your mind, say “my family”. [but of course don’t forget to change it properly at the end].

And finally, once the entire report is ready, revisit the bug title and update it properly. Spend a little more time on the issue title and have two or three revised titles so that it becomes fully meaningful at the end.

It’s always nice when you learn something new, try it yourself, test it, rectify the glitches, and finally feel the moment of fulfillment.

This is what I felt when I hosted my personal blog

There were so many issues while I was shifting from wordpress.com site to this self-hosted site. Infact actually it’s easy if you are starting from a self-hosted site itself as I did for… 656 more words

via Moving to Self-hosted WordPress Site — Words and Notion

Oops… that’s a show stopper one..

How did it happen..?

Most of the time when I try to reproduce  a crash issue I start thinking from the very first step and finally end up nowhere. Often the crash should have happened with the last step only.. Mostly it wouldn’t have any relation with the initial steps. So I am training myself to just recollect and redo the final steps.

Okay, so how all normally a show stopper issue or the so called crash issue happens in a mobile application?

I am adding a few of such checkpoints here…

  1. While the activity is playing in the app, just come out of the same by pressing the home button of the device and then try to return back
  2. Make the app in background by launching another app and then return to the app under test from recent window.
  3. Do interrupt the app via some mechanisms like phone calls or messaging
  4. Try an offline testing
  5. Try a test under weak battery
  6. Try offline-online switching frequently
  7. Landscape- portrait switching
  8. Access the app via multiple accounts at the same time
  9. Delete and already deleted item from the app if it’s shown for a while

How to install ipa on the device?

Are apps missing from the left section of your iTunes window?

Wondering where in the world are the apps in iTunes library?

A bit Google search helped me to understand that Apple had removed that app section in the latest version of iTunes 12.7 [released on September 19th 2017]

As a tester/developer it would be real trouble for you especially when you want to install a new apk in your ios device.

Never you are left alone. Always there is a workaround if something fails

I was so happy when I found this simple drag and drop solution to this trouble.

So here go the simple steps for you

  1. Save the ipa in your desktop
  2. Connect your ios device and your computer/laptop using the USB cable
  3. Open iTunes [might appear automatically]
  4. Drag and drop ipa on theDevices section on your device name only
  5. You are done.

It is time for a change, a renovation in process consultancy. For the last 40 or 50 years, the same steps are being followed; the same thought process is being applied with little or no change.

In between, industry specific new standards/models got evolved and practiced. Other than that no major change happened in the process consultancy arena. From where to start the change..?

If the right process is followed in the right way by the project team itself, then there is no need of a second person to ensure process compliance. But occurrence of mistakes is a common phenomenon especially when there is human intervention (and even with machines too). Hence it is always recommended to have an external person for verifying the process compliance.

The following questions may seem questioning the validity of existing well known standards or models. With due respect to all of those standards, I am trying to see the process frame work through different angles- “the second generation of Process Consultancy”.

• If all the projects are being executed in the same way following the same written process and procedures, how can they be innovative?

• If lessons earned are documented, passed to the followers and practiced, won’t they be copycats?

• Is the written process really fitting your projects or aren’t you pretending it to be okay, just to avoid the tailoring procedures?

• Is there really an established process for at least half part of your project or aren’t you just executing it as it come up on your way?

The questions won’t end here..it continues till there is a second generation. And then, only those consultants who have subject expertise as well as analytical nature may be the most suitable for next century organizations.

Horizontal traceability shows relationship among related items such as between requirements itself. It traces dependent items within a development phase. Vertical traceability is a characteristic identifying the source of requirements typically from requirements to design, to the source code and to test cases.

Horizontal traceability is an aspect identifying non hierarchical similarities, mutual properties, interactions, etc. among requirements and work products. For example assume we want to implement a login function in four different types of browsers. There are four sub teams to do this. Here the functional requirement remains the same. If any change in requirement happens, then it needs to be reflected across all the four browsers. These kind of dependent requirements are easily traceable if